LoCo June 2019 Price and Inventory Trends

by Meg Johnston Burke 07/19/2019

Across Loudoun County, the sold prices were up 3.2% from the previous month (May '19). Interestingly though, the prices were also only up 3.0% from June 2018.  As you can see in the graph below, the prices have been a bit erratic, with dips & spikes from one month to the next. The trend is still generally upward, but we are not seeing huge jumps in prices, which some sellers were hoping for because they have heard it's been a "sellers' market" with low inventory.

 

Another number I like to follow is the number of actual contracts written ("new pendings").  Sometimes I think this can tell us more than looking at the number of closings, since some people close (go to settlement) in three weeks, some as much as two months -- all of which can skew the view of sales trends. In my experience, Sellers really want to know: "When do Buyers make the offers???" It's probably no surprise to you that Nov-Dec-Jan are traditionally the "slowest," but you might be surprised to see that although things do slow down in August, there are still a substantial number of contracts being written.

 

I mentioned low inventory. We have seen, consistently, fewer active listings per month when compared to the same month of the previous year EVERY month since June of 2015! Here is the graph for the Number of Active Listings:

 

Based on the basic supply & demand principle we were taught in Econ 101, I'm surprised we haven't seen larger spikes in prices to go with the reduced supply.  I think it largely comes from Buyers not being willing or able to pay skyrocketing prices, even with continuing low interest rates.  I also think the bank appraisers are still a bit more conservative (ever since being pegged as one of the scapegoats of the Great Recession), which might be suppressing the prices a tad.

 

If you would like to see specific numbers for your town -- even for your zip code, feel free to reach out to me.

I'd be happy to pull those up for you.   

 

About the Author
Author

Meg Johnston Burke

Meg & Loudoun County: Back in 1993, we moved here from Pennsylvania, thinking we'd stay for a year or two -- well clearly, Loudoun is "home" now! In the past, I was a broadcast advertising rep (Philly market) and an at-home mom, until 2000, when I jumped into the real estate business. Even with all the ups & downs, I've loved this business (& especially my clients) ever since!